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MOLTO RE / GLOBAL RISK INTELLIGENCE

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The Political Risk and Violence. Observed violence and conflict forecasts, brought together in one place. See the evidence. Understand the distinction.

POLITICAL RISK / SOURCE-DATED RESEARCHObserved activity and modelled probabilities

RESEARCH EDITION

October 29th, 2026

UCDP September release · VIEWS August inputs

CHOOSE YOUR PERSPECTIVE

One world. Different signals.

Observed activity. Forecast risk.

NOW ON THE POLITICAL RISK BRIEFING

Nethmi Perera

Global and regional research · 2026-11-08 edition

2,014 candidate records · 44 countries

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Daily release at 7:30 a.m. Singapore time. Edition date 2026-11-08 (Singapore time).

Edition coverage and data status

Reported organized violence from the UCDP September candidate release. Explore the source estimates, locations and preliminary status.

This is a dated research snapshot. The September 2026 UCDP candidate release includes earlier or imprecisely dated records. VIEWS forecasts use inputs through August 2026. The datasets do not establish that conflict is ongoing today. An absence of source records does not establish peace. Source records and release identifiers are retained in the downloadable dataset.

THE POLITICAL RISK MAP

Locate the signal.

September 2026 source release

Red markers: candidate event locations. Size reflects the source fatality estimate.Source periods differ. Coordinates may be approximate. Country shading is not a conflict footprint.

THE EVIDENCE BEHIND THE BRIEFING

Observed violence in focus.

View all source reports

Organized violencePreliminary

Ukraine

UCDP / Candidate 26.0.9

251 candidate records

The source release records a best estimate of 6,219 fatalities. Source low / high: 6,101 / 6,204. Values are preserved as supplied and can be inconsistent. This is not a current conflict alert.

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The source release records a best estimate of 6,219 fatalities. Source low / high: 6,101 / 6,204. Values are preserved as supplied and can be inconsistent. This is not a current conflict alert.

UCDP Candidate 26.0.9 provides reported organized violence. Source dates, geographic precision and fatality estimates are retained. The September release is not a strict September event-date filter. Best, low and high source values can be inconsistent and are preserved as supplied, not presented as confidence intervals.

September 2026 source release

Original source
Organized violencePreliminary

Yemen (North Yemen)

UCDP / Candidate 26.0.9

238 candidate records

The source release records a best estimate of 3,762 fatalities. Source low / high: 1,780 / 4,283. Values are preserved as supplied and can be inconsistent. This is not a current conflict alert.

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The source release records a best estimate of 3,762 fatalities. Source low / high: 1,780 / 4,283. Values are preserved as supplied and can be inconsistent. This is not a current conflict alert.

UCDP Candidate 26.0.9 provides reported organized violence. Source dates, geographic precision and fatality estimates are retained. The September release is not a strict September event-date filter. Best, low and high source values can be inconsistent and are preserved as supplied, not presented as confidence intervals.

September 2026 source release

Original source
Organized violencePreliminary

Pakistan

UCDP / Candidate 26.0.9

150 candidate records

The source release records a best estimate of 682 fatalities. Source low / high: 653 / 754. Values are preserved as supplied and can be inconsistent. This is not a current conflict alert.

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The source release records a best estimate of 682 fatalities. Source low / high: 653 / 754. Values are preserved as supplied and can be inconsistent. This is not a current conflict alert.

UCDP Candidate 26.0.9 provides reported organized violence. Source dates, geographic precision and fatality estimates are retained. The September release is not a strict September event-date filter. Best, low and high source values can be inconsistent and are preserved as supplied, not presented as confidence intervals.

September 2026 source release

Original source
Organized violencePreliminary

Ethiopia

UCDP / Candidate 26.0.9

119 candidate records

The source release records a best estimate of 609 fatalities. Source low / high: 582 / 1,393. Values are preserved as supplied and can be inconsistent. This is not a current conflict alert.

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The source release records a best estimate of 609 fatalities. Source low / high: 582 / 1,393. Values are preserved as supplied and can be inconsistent. This is not a current conflict alert.

UCDP Candidate 26.0.9 provides reported organized violence. Source dates, geographic precision and fatality estimates are retained. The September release is not a strict September event-date filter. Best, low and high source values can be inconsistent and are preserved as supplied, not presented as confidence intervals.

September 2026 source release

Original source
Organized violencePreliminary

Nigeria

UCDP / Candidate 26.0.9

147 candidate records

The source release records a best estimate of 464 fatalities. Source low / high: 447 / 468. Values are preserved as supplied and can be inconsistent. This is not a current conflict alert.

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The source release records a best estimate of 464 fatalities. Source low / high: 447 / 468. Values are preserved as supplied and can be inconsistent. This is not a current conflict alert.

UCDP Candidate 26.0.9 provides reported organized violence. Source dates, geographic precision and fatality estimates are retained. The September release is not a strict September event-date filter. Best, low and high source values can be inconsistent and are preserved as supplied, not presented as confidence intervals.

September 2026 source release

Original source
Organized violencePreliminary

Mexico

UCDP / Candidate 26.0.9

237 candidate records

The source release records a best estimate of 392 fatalities. Source low / high: 329 / 434. Values are preserved as supplied and can be inconsistent. This is not a current conflict alert.

Read full storyClose full story

The source release records a best estimate of 392 fatalities. Source low / high: 329 / 434. Values are preserved as supplied and can be inconsistent. This is not a current conflict alert.

UCDP Candidate 26.0.9 provides reported organized violence. Source dates, geographic precision and fatality estimates are retained. The September release is not a strict September event-date filter. Best, low and high source values can be inconsistent and are preserved as supplied, not presented as confidence intervals.

September 2026 source release

Original source
Organized violencePreliminary

Sudan

UCDP / Candidate 26.0.9

46 candidate records

The source release records a best estimate of 277 fatalities. Source low / high: 271 / 710. Values are preserved as supplied and can be inconsistent. This is not a current conflict alert.

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The source release records a best estimate of 277 fatalities. Source low / high: 271 / 710. Values are preserved as supplied and can be inconsistent. This is not a current conflict alert.

UCDP Candidate 26.0.9 provides reported organized violence. Source dates, geographic precision and fatality estimates are retained. The September release is not a strict September event-date filter. Best, low and high source values can be inconsistent and are preserved as supplied, not presented as confidence intervals.

September 2026 source release

Original source
Organized violencePreliminary

Colombia

UCDP / Candidate 26.0.9

203 candidate records

The source release records a best estimate of 242 fatalities. Source low / high: 241 / 242. Values are preserved as supplied and can be inconsistent. This is not a current conflict alert.

Read full storyClose full story

The source release records a best estimate of 242 fatalities. Source low / high: 241 / 242. Values are preserved as supplied and can be inconsistent. This is not a current conflict alert.

UCDP Candidate 26.0.9 provides reported organized violence. Source dates, geographic precision and fatality estimates are retained. The September release is not a strict September event-date filter. Best, low and high source values can be inconsistent and are preserved as supplied, not presented as confidence intervals.

September 2026 source release

Original source

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

What the data supports.

The September candidate release contains 2,014 records across 44 countries. The largest country fatality totals in this release are Ukraine (6,219), Yemen (North Yemen) (3,762), Pakistan (682). This is a descriptive source ranking, not an insured loss ranking.

For 2026-11, 27 countries meet the 50% probability threshold for at least 25 battle-related deaths. Existing conflicts can drive these probabilities.

BEHIND THE BRIEFING

Source first.
Perspective always.

UCDP Candidate 26.0.9 provides reported organized violence. Source dates, geographic precision and fatality estimates are retained. The September release is not a strict September event-date filter. Best, low and high source values can be inconsistent and are preserved as supplied, not presented as confidence intervals.

VIEWS fatalities003_2026_08_t01 provides monthly probabilities of at least 25 battle-related deaths in state-based conflict. At least 50% is labelled likely to reach that threshold. The 10% to below 50% watch band is analyst-selected. Probabilities are not added across months. The forecast concerns a defined violence threshold, not a new war declaration or an insured loss estimate.

UCDP · Hegre, Croicu, Eck & Högbladh (2020), Introducing the UCDP Candidate Events Dataset, Research & Politics. CC BY 4.0. VIEWS / Uppsala University / PRIO. Geographic context: Natural Earth via geo-countries.

Download the source-dated research dataset

RISK INTO PERSPECTIVE

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