Insurance capital.
Markets in perspective.

Good morning! I'm Miryam Campbell, Molto RE's Managing Editor for reinsurance and financial markets. Welcome to Molto News, Markets, from London. A quick look at Rachel's forecast for Tuesday. London is expected to range from eight to twelve degrees Celsius, with a chance of a light shower and very little rain overall. Now, to the markets.

First, the MR Global ReCo Index, our equal-weight local-currency price composite for twenty-five selected insurance and reinsurance groups. At the latest close, on Monday 2 November 2026, the index stood at 191.16. It was up 1.14 percent over one trading day, up 8.27 percent over one month, up 14.45 percent over six months, and up 27.59 percent over one year. A five-year return is not available because this research series begins in November 2023. These are price changes, excluding dividends. Now to the financial headlines.

This report comes from the Guardian, published on 02 November 2026. Apple earned $30.71 billion in the July to September period. The company's earnings of $2.10 per share in the July-September period represent a 12% increase from the same period last year. Analysts were expecting earnings of $1.99 per share on revenue of $113.4 billion. Jacob Bourne, an Emarketer analyst, noted that Apple's resilience is evident in record iPhone revenue and strong growth in China, while the company's cautious approach to artificial intelligence infrastructure spending helps preserve its cash flow. Despite investor uncertainty over tech firms' investments in AI, Apple's partnerships with companies like Alphabet could help strengthen its AI capabilities without the same financial risks. This positive start for new CEO John Ternus comes amidst ongoing investor concerns about the tech sector's investments in AI.

This report comes from European Central Bank, published on 29 October 2026. The European Central Bank has decided to keep its key interest rates unchanged, as reported by the ECB. Energy prices have continued to rise, posing risks to both inflation and growth. While underlying inflation has remained stable, the full impact of the energy shock is yet to be seen, and wages have not shown significant changes. The Governing Council is committed to ensuring inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term. Financing conditions have tightened, which is likely to affect inflation and growth. The ECB will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance. The interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations, and the marginal lending facility remain at 2.50%, 2.65%, and 2.90% respectively. The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured pace. The ECB stands ready to adjust its instruments to ensure price stability and preserve monetary policy transmission.

This report comes from Bureau of Economic Analysis, published on 29 October 2026. The figures are an advance estimate. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2026, up from 2.2 percent in the second quarter. The growth was driven by increases in investment, consumer spending, and government spending, though these were partly offset by a decrease in exports. Imports also rose. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, which include consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased by 4.9 percent, compared to 4.6 percent in the previous quarter. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased by 3.0 percent, down from 5.6 percent in the second quarter. The personal consumption expenditures price index rose by 2.1 percent, while the PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.5 percent. The next GDP release is scheduled for November 25, 2026. An annualised rate expresses the quarterly pace as if it continued for a year. An annualised rate expresses the quarterly pace as if it continued for a year.

This report comes from Federal Reserve, published on 28 October 2026. The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75 to 4 percent, supporting its dual mandate. Economic activity is expanding strongly, with domestic spending resilient and productivity growth robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has remained stable. However, inflation remains elevated. The Committee will gather more information to determine the appropriate policy stance to achieve its 2 percent inflation goal. Two committee members, Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, voted against maintaining the current rate, preferring a 0.25 percentage point increase.

This report comes from Australian Bureau of Statistics, published on 28 October 2026. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for September 2026 rose by 4.3% over the past 12 months, up from 4.0% in August 2026. Trimmed mean inflation increased to 3.6% from 3.5%. In September alone, the CPI rose by 0.8% in original terms and 0.6% in seasonally adjusted terms. The next CPI release is scheduled for November 25, 2026. The ABS has also announced that from February 2027, the CPI will be published on the fourth Wednesday of each month instead of the last Wednesday. The next weight update for the CPI will be in January 2027, with the release date set for February 24, 2027.

Our view at Molto is that the reports from The Guardian Business and the European Central Bank provide a nuanced perspective on the current economic landscape, particularly in relation to Apple's performance and the broader economic climate. The Guardian Business report highlights Apple's resilience and strong financial performance, which stands in contrast to the broader tech sector's hesitancy in investing in artificial intelligence infrastructure. This resilience is attributed to Apple's cautious approach, which preserves its cash flow and allows it to maintain a competitive edge in the market.

In contrast, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federal Reserve reports indicate robust economic growth and resilient domestic spending, with the U.S. GDP increasing at an annual rate of 3.4 percent. This growth is supported by strong consumer and government spending, though it is partly offset by decreases in exports and imports. The Federal Reserve maintains its target range for the federal funds rate, supporting its dual mandate, and notes that inflation remains elevated. These reports highlight a broader economic context of stability and growth, which contrasts with the specific challenges faced by the tech sector, particularly in AI investments.

Insurers and reinsurers must navigate a complex landscape of funding costs and business uncertainty, as evidenced by reports from The Guardian Business and the European Central Bank. Apple's resilience, driven by strong financial performance and cautious investment in AI, could provide a model for managing risks. However, the broader economic context, as indicated by robust U.S. GDP growth and stable inflation, suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook. The European Central Bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, despite rising energy prices, underscores the ongoing challenges to inflation and growth.

That's Molto News, Markets. The dated original releases and full transcript are on our Markets page. Our analysis is interpretation, and this automated programme is for general information. I'm Miryam Campbell for Molto RE. Have a good morning.